Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 22.147144 24.053048 26.102783 28.480514 31.174654 34.146482 37.691776
2026-01-25 18.984063 21.581118 24.563761 28.279700 32.837992 38.318294 45.516952
2026-02-01 16.861196 19.848425 23.458983 28.223909 34.471805 42.573119 54.205275
2026-02-08 15.258233 18.462072 22.495821 28.077737 35.823985 46.562316 63.307460
2026-02-15 14.005887 17.331393 21.661971 27.900080 36.995240 50.385957 72.954188
2026-02-22 12.991386 16.381894 20.925297 27.701516 38.024068 54.082956 83.229760
2026-03-01 12.197069 15.638397 20.368980 27.650464 39.203214 58.146609 95.154358
2026-03-08 11.521412 14.990399 19.868245 27.593376 40.318361 62.249577 108.314214
2026-03-15 11.183780 14.782723 19.969217 28.445352 43.009673 69.601718 130.568081
2026-03-22 10.595012 14.162811 19.395821 28.145750 43.658921 73.255709 145.997077
2026-03-29 10.131884 13.692633 19.006125 28.094135 44.723015 77.917955 165.806939
2026-04-05 9.782160 13.365943 18.807749 28.333299 46.343908 84.073924 192.576859
2026-04-12 9.339507 12.880676 18.338343 28.084774 47.051425 88.545312 217.487535
2026-04-19 8.955264 12.463782 17.950681 27.945914 47.969394 93.777974 248.497009
2026-04-26 8.624427 12.110519 17.640999 27.915965 49.109697 99.880253 287.471017
2026-05-03 8.302075 11.751623 17.295555 27.782666 50.008037 105.629512 330.356866
2026-05-10 7.999080 11.406682 16.949374 27.612157 50.797598 111.332921 379.154255
2026-05-17 7.715444 11.077900 16.608719 27.418393 51.505060 117.039918 435.126588
2026-05-24 7.475868 10.808787 16.353844 27.368899 52.545421 124.113934 509.425921
2026-05-31 7.251934 10.554140 16.107833 27.312981 53.563362 131.498180 599.225784
2026-06-07 7.175099 10.540736 16.289591 28.152885 56.972347 148.351006 802.968716
2026-06-14 6.940807 10.249090 15.948415 27.857665 57.386702 154.648496 932.751532
2026-06-21 6.754447 10.031083 15.729907 27.806821 58.455888 163.967625 1131.595505